Immigration has dropped as a voter concern after Trump's border crackdown, shifting political advantage toward Democrats ahead of midterm elections, according to polling and analysis.
The New York Times reported in 2025 that Biden administration officials had viewed rising immigration as "a distraction" they wanted to ignore. Scott Shuchart, a Biden appointee at Immigration and Customs Enforcement, told the newspaper the White House was "wishing the problem would go away so that they could focus on the things they cared about."
Trump used border dissatisfaction to win the 2024 election and has since enforced an immigration crackdown. Yet voter attention to immigration has collapsed. In a February 2024 Gallup poll, 28% of Americans named immigration as the country's most important problem. By May 2026, that figure dropped to 8%. An Economist/YouGov poll showed the share of registered voters naming immigration as the top issue fell from 14% in October 2024 to 5% in September 2026.
Republican pollster Erik Iverson told Axios that declining border crossings have reduced immigration's urgency, depriving Republicans of an energizing issue. "You become a victim of your own success," he said.
Trump's approval ratings on immigration remain negative. His net approval on immigration in September to October 2026 was negative 10.8%, according to RealClear Polling. A Fox News poll found most Americans believe the Trump administration has "gone too far" in enforcing immigration laws, including 60% of independents.
Independents now trust Democrats more than Republicans on immigration. A September 2026 Marist survey found 41% of independents named Democrats as better on immigration compared to 27% for Republicans, despite Democrats not endorsing new immigration policies.