President Trump is citing a Census Bureau report to revive debunked claims about noncitizen voting in the 2020 election, but data experts warn the report contains serious methodological flaws.
The report, produced by the Census Bureau, has connections to a Trump-aligned think tank. Trump has used the document to argue that large numbers of noncitizens voted illegally in 2020, repeating assertions that election officials, courts, and previous audits have found baseless.
Census Bureau researchers surveyed roughly 250,000 households about voting participation, but the survey relied on voluntary responses with low response rates. Experts flagged critical problems with the methodology. The report did not verify whether respondents actually voted or whether they were citizens. It instead asked people if they voted, creating space for misunderstandings, misreporting, and data quality issues that inflate noncitizen voting estimates.
Multiple analyses of actual voter rolls and election records from 2020 found virtually no evidence of noncitizens casting ballots. A Brennan Center study of 23.5 million votes found only 30 potential cases of noncitizen voting. Trump's legal team pursued over 60 lawsuits contesting the 2020 results, and courts rejected nearly all of them due to lack of evidence.
The Census Bureau's unusual decision to publish this report without peer review raised questions among researchers about the agency's independence. The think tank connection adds another layer of concern about the report's origins and purpose.
Trump has consistently promoted false election fraud narratives despite losing challenges in Republican-appointed judges and having no evidence accepted by courts. His continued promotion of the noncitizen voting claim, now backed by a flawed government report, reflects his ongoing effort to undermine confidence in 2020 results heading into 2024.