Florida voters will choose Tuesday between Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly for governor in a race testing whether the state's conservative shift will hold.
No Democrat has won Florida's governorship since Lawton Chiles in 1994. Jolly, a former Republican congressman from Tampa, switched parties and campaigned as a centrist to move past the culture wars of outgoing Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Donalds, a congressman from southwest Florida who won the Republican nomination with President Donald Trump's backing, has sought to portray Jolly as out-of-touch. Donalds would be Florida's first Black governor and has reached out to Black voters throughout the campaign.
Republicans hold a roughly 1.5 million voter registration advantage. Donalds has also dominated Jolly in fundraising.
The race centered on high prices and homeowners insurance costs, particularly important in a state with a history of hurricane damage. The results will signal whether Trump's unpopularity extends into his adopted home state. Democrats point to recent special election wins from Miami to Palm Beach as signs of momentum.
Regardless of who wins, the winner will likely work with a Republican-controlled legislature. If Jolly proves competitive, Democrats have hoped to break the GOP's supermajority in the legislature.