Final rating changes: 63 races move toward Democrats, 1 toward Republicans

Inside Elections released 64 race rating changes this week, with 63 moving in a direction more favorable to Democrats and one toward Republicans, as the midterm campaign enters its final days.

The shifts span 45 House races, nine Senate races, and 10 gubernatorial contests. President Donald Trump's negative job approval rating drives most Republican struggles, though the pattern varies. Some changes occur in swing districts where Democratic nominees have narrow advantages. GOP candidates also struggle to pull away in traditionally red districts and states.

In the House, the battleground has expanded into Republican territory. In March, Inside Elections rated 64 competitive races, including 30 Republican-held seats. Now 82 races are competitive, with 55 held by Republicans and 27 by Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of three seats for a House majority. Inside Elections now projects they will gain between 20 and 30 seats.

Ten GOP-held districts moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, including seats held by Rep. Lauren Boebert in Colorado's 4th District, Rep. Jeff Van Drew in New Jersey's 2nd, and Rep. Michael R. Turner in Ohio's 10th, which jumped all the way to Lean Republican. Rep. Richard Hudson holds North Carolina's 9th and serves as National Republican Congressional Committee chairman.

Three Democratic-held districts moved off the battleground to Solid Democratic: California's 45th, Virginia's 7th, and New Hampshire's 2nd.

A dozen races moved from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic, while five House races shifted to Toss-up from Tilt Republican.

Democratic prospects improved in Ohio, Texas, and North Carolina. In Ohio, the statewide governor and Senate races shifted from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown now holds a narrow polling edge over appointed GOP Senator Jon Husted, benefiting from a shifted political environment.

For the Senate, Democrats need four seat flips for a majority. Inside Elections now projects they will gain between four and six seats. Two races moved from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic: Ohio and Texas. State Rep. James Talarico has polled narrowly ahead of GOP nominee Ken Paxton for five months, despite hundreds of millions spent against Talarico.

Senate Republicans also face risk in Iowa and Kansas, states Trump won by double digits in 2024. Those races shifted from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. Democratic nominees Josh Turek in Iowa and Adam Hamilton in Kansas remain competitive. Nebraska and South Carolina races shifted from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican.

In January, just five Senate races were competitive. Now 16 states are on the Senate battleground, with 12 Republican-held seats and four held by Democrats.

Four gubernatorial open races previously rated Toss-ups moved to Tilt Democratic: Alaska, Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin. In Nevada, the race between Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic state Attorney General Aaron Ford shifted from Tilt Republican to Toss-up.