# Fewer Than Half of California Voters Back Billionaire Tax, Poll Finds
Support for California's proposed wealth tax on billionaires has slipped below the halfway mark, according to fresh polling data released Monday. The University of California Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research and POLITICO found that only 45 percent of registered California voters back Proposition 40, the state ballot measure that would impose a 5 percent annual tax on the net worth of the state's roughly 200 billionaires.
The finding comes as California heads toward a November election where the measure faces an uphill battle. With fewer than half of voters currently supporting the initiative, proponents will need to significantly shift public opinion or risk defeat at the ballot box.
Proposition 40 represents one of the most aggressive wealth tax proposals in the nation. The tax would apply only to California residents with a net worth exceeding $1 billion, targeting approximately 200 individuals. State officials have projected the measure could generate roughly $8 billion annually, funding education, healthcare, and housing programs. Supporters argue the tax addresses inequality and funds services for working families while placing the burden only on ultra-wealthy residents.
Opposition to the measure has centered on concerns about implementation, economic competitiveness, and constitutional questions. Critics contend that taxing net worth, rather than income, presents administrative challenges and may face federal legal challenges. Some economists worry the tax could drive billionaires and their wealth out of California to lower-tax jurisdictions, reducing the revenue base and harming the state's economy.
The 45 percent support figure marks a decline from earlier polling, suggesting momentum has shifted against the measure since it qualified for the ballot. California voters have historically shown skepticism toward new taxes, even those framed as targeting only the ultra-wealthy. The state's recent history includes failed ballot measures seeking to raise taxes on high earners and corporations.
The timing of the poll reflects a broader political environment where economic concerns weigh heavily on voters. With inflation and cost-of-living pressures affecting California households, voters may be less inclined to support measures their opponents characterize as business-unfriendly, regardless of who bears the tax burden.
Proponents face a steep climb to reach the 50 percent threshold needed for passage. Campaign spending on both sides will likely intensify as November approaches. Wealthy donors opposed to the measure have already committed substantial funds to defeat it, while tax advocates must overcome voter skepticism about new tax proposals.
The measure's fate will depend partly on turnout and which voters show up to the polls. Youth and lower-income voters who might benefit from the proposed spending often vote at lower rates in midterm elections, while older, wealthier voters typically demonstrate higher turnout. This demographic dynamic could further disadvantage Proposition 40's chances.
California voters will ultimately decide whether to join other states and cities experimenting with wealth taxes. The outcome carries national implications, as it could influence similar proposals being considered elsewhere and signal whether Americans view billionaire wealth taxation as legitimate policy.