Median Strategies retracted a poll released earlier this month that showed Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass leading City Council member Nithya Raman by a substantial margin in the 2025 mayoral race. The polling firm disclosed on Monday that it had fabricated the data, halting operations after the discovery.
The fake poll had given Bass a commanding lead, potentially influencing public perception of the race between the incumbent Democrat and Raman, also a Democrat. Raman announced her candidacy against Bass in November, challenging the mayor who took office in December 2022.
Median Strategies' decision to retract the poll raises questions about polling standards in local elections and how false data can spread through media channels before verification. The incident underscores vulnerabilities in the polling industry, where firms operate with varying levels of oversight compared to larger national pollsters.
Bass, elected on a platform addressing homelessness and public safety, has faced criticism during her first term, particularly over her initial response to the deadly 2025 Los Angeles wildfires. Raman, representing City Council District 4, has positioned herself as a progressive alternative, though Bass herself holds progressive credentials.
The retraction removes one data point from a race that shapes up as a significant Democratic primary contest. Both candidates compete for support among Los Angeles voters in a city where Democratic registration dominates. The false poll's circulation before retraction may have already influenced campaign strategies and donor decisions.
Median Strategies' shutdown following the fabrication suggests the firm faces reputational collapse and potential legal exposure. Local election observers and campaigns will likely demand greater transparency and verification standards from polling organizations operating in future Los Angeles races.