Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., has implemented an internal office policy restricting his staff from trading on prediction markets, moving ahead of any House-wide ban. The Democratic lawmaker announced the measure in March as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket gain prominence for allowing bets on political and economic outcomes.
Moulton's unilateral action reflects mounting pressure on Congress to address ethics concerns around prediction market trading. Critics argue that staff members with access to nonpublic information could gain unfair advantages when wagering on future events, from election outcomes to policy decisions. The practice raises questions about conflicts of interest and whether government employees should profit from betting on matters their offices help shape.
The move comes as the House weighs a formal chamber-wide prohibition. Multiple members have backed legislation to ban all House staff and members from trading on prediction markets, though no sweeping rule has passed yet. Moulton's office policy effectively preempts that debate for his own team, establishing stricter internal standards.
The broader prediction market landscape has exploded in recent years. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted millions in wagering volume, with users betting on everything from presidential election results to Fed policy decisions. Some market proponents argue these platforms provide valuable price signals about future outcomes. Skeptics worry they create perverse incentives for government actors and raise transparency issues.
Other House offices have not yet adopted similar internal restrictions, leaving most staff members free to trade on prediction markets. The absence of a House-wide rule leaves an inconsistent patchwork where ethics standards vary by office. House leadership has not moved aggressively to establish a uniform ban, though the issue continues to draw scrutiny from good-government groups and ethics watchdogs.
Moulton's voluntary step represents a middle ground for now. His office has chosen to restrict staff participation without waiting for the full chamber to