Donald Trump's endorsement power faces a critical test in May primary elections across multiple states. His hand-picked candidates are underperforming in early contests, forcing Republicans to reckon with whether Trump remains the GOP's dominant force or has lost his ability to determine party nominations.
Trump has backed numerous candidates for House and Senate seats heading into May primaries. Early returns show mixed results. Some endorsed candidates trail their opponents despite Trump's backing, while others face unexpectedly competitive races against lesser-known rivals. This marks a departure from 2022, when Trump-backed nominees swept Republican primaries and helped reshape the party in his image.
The underperformance raises questions about Trump's influence at a pivotal moment. His political capital depends partly on his record of anointing winners. If his picks falter in May, moderate Republicans may feel emboldened to challenge Trump-backed candidates. Party leaders could begin hedging their bets, endorsing candidates based on electability rather than Trump alignment.
Several factors could explain the pattern. Some Trump endorsements came late, limiting campaign momentum. Others involved candidates Trump knew personally rather than strongest performers. Voter fatigue with Trump-centric campaigns may also play a role, as some Republicans seek fresher faces.
The stakes extend beyond primary outcomes. A string of Trump losses would signal declining control over Republican infrastructure heading into 2026 midterms. It would embolden Trump critics within the party who argue his endorsement actually hurts candidates in general elections. Conversely, if Trump-backed candidates surge in late May contests, it reinforces his stranglehold on GOP nominations.
Party insiders and strategists are watching closely. Some acknowledge Trump remains powerful but question whether his endorsement carries the same weight it did two years ago. The May primaries will reveal whether Trump commands the kingmaker status he assumes or faces the first real limits on his party authority.